What New Brunswick’s Bellwether Ridings Say About the 2025 Federal Election

By The Porter O'Brien Team

While often overshadowed by larger provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta on the national stage, New Brunswick holds a surprising key to predicting Canada's federal elections. In a striking trend, four New Brunswick electoral districts have elected representatives from the eventual governing party in close to 80 per cent of the 14 federal elections held in the last 50 years. 

Miramichi-Grand Lake, Saint John-Kennebecasis, Fredericton-Oromocto, and Moncton-Dieppe.

That kind of consistency makes them more than just local races—they’re bellwethers. These are the ridings that tend to swing with the national mood, offering early signs of which way voters may go on election night. Porter O’Brien believes a key to predicting the outcome of the upcoming federal election exists in these four ridings.

We don’t need to repeat the well-rehearsed chorus of this election’s high stakes, though there is a lot to discuss there. And while our agency has people working across the country, with our head office rooted in New Brunswick, we’re uniquely positioned to analyze  how they might reveal prevailing political trends of this critical moment. In a moment this critical, it's not just the big battlegrounds that deserve attention, but the ones that quietly get it right, time and time again.

*Note: a number of New Brunswick ridings have shifted their names and/or boundaries which make historical comparisons complex. For this article, we are using the current electoral district names.

CONTEXT MATTERS

Keep in mind the old adage that elections are lost, not won. Just six months ago, New Brunswickers voted out the incumbent provincial government. Many experts, Porter O’Brien team members included, attributed this trend to New Brunswick voters being wary of the provincial Conservative party creeping further “right” on the political spectrum. While the government was credited with balancing budgets and navigating the COVID-19 pandemic effectively, its positions on issues such as gender identity, health care, and Indigenous relations may have contributed to a shift in public sentiment. This provincial context provides an important background evaluating the ongoing federal writ period in New Brunswick.

New Brunswick Federal Election Results by Riding (1974–Present)

This chart provides a historical overview of New Brunswick’s federal electoral results from 1974 onward. Each row corresponds to a federal election year, listing the governing party and prime minister at the time, followed by the elected Member of Parliament for each electoral district in New Brunswick.

MIRAMICHI-GRAND LAKE

In 11 of the last 14 federal elections, Miramichi-Grand Lake has voted with the incoming governing party. One of the exceptions came in 2021, when Conservative Jake Stewart unseated Liberal MP Pat Finnigan—now a provincial cabinet minister. In the ongoing campaign, Mike Dawson was elected to the provincial legislature in October as a PC MLA, but stepped down to offer his name to run federally for the Conservative Party. Though some voters may be frustrated by the by-election his departure has triggered, Dawson’s recent provincial win and strong name recognition give him a decisive edge.

Porter O’Brien Prediction: Mike Dawson, Conservative Party of Canada

SAINT JOHN-KENNEBECASIS

In 11 of the last 14 federal elections, voters in the riding formerly known as Saint John-Rothesay have aligned themselves with the incoming governing party. Wayne Long has been an outspoken MP on social media and traditional media, most recently calling for Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation in June. Now, he's back on the ballot, this time as an early supporter of Mark Carney. For the Conservatives, Melissa Young, who has worked for trade unions and governments in New Brunswick and Ontario, was handpicked by the Federal Conservatives, pushing out four candidates that were already vying for nomination. This was an unpopular decision within the riding that may cost them. Despite past friction with his party, Wayne Long’s local credibility and high profile position him for another win.

Porter O’Brien Prediction: Wayne Long, Liberal Party of Canada

FREDERICTON-OROMOCTO

It’s often said the path to a majority goes through Fredericton-Oromocto. For decades, voters here have mirrored the national results. The race is tight with Brian MacDonald seeking the seat for the Conservatives. Brian has been actively campaigning for this role for over a year and is widely considered to be well-connected within Pierre Poilievre’s inner circle, making him a candidate for a potential cabinet role. The Liberals proclaimed their candidate, David Myles, after the writ had been dropped. David is a star candidate as a Juno-acclaimed musician and deeply connected in the Fredericton community. Fredericton voters are spoiled for choice in that only one of these good candidates can win.

Porter O’Brien Prediction: David Myles, Liberal Party of Canada

MONCTON-DIEPPE

Voters in this riding generally align with the governing party, notably during Liberal majorities.​ Long-time cabinet minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor is the Liberal candidate, bringing experience and profile, giving her the upper hand. Conservative candidate Jocelyn Dionne is a newcomer to the federal stage, which means he’ll face an uphill battle to win the race.

Porter O’Brien Prediction: Ginette Petitpas Taylor, Liberal Party of Canada

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

If New Brunswick’s bellwether ridings predict the future, the Porter O’Brien team’s forecast for the 2025 federal election is a slim Liberal majority or minority. Changing riding boundaries may slightly affect our predictions but if history plays out this spring, this team predicts the Liberal government will continue its run.

Keep your eyes on New Brunswick. It may just be where Canada’s political future is quietly being decided.

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At Porter O’Brien, we don’t just follow political trends—we help shape them. Whether you're navigating a campaign, managing a crisis, or building influence in the public sphere, our team is trusted by leaders who want to make an impact. Contact us today: info@porterobrien.com

Full List of 2025 Candidates:

Acadie-Bathurst

Liberal – Serge Cormier – x

Conservative – James Brown

NDP – Ty Boulay

Green – Wayne Wood – *

People’s Party – Randi Rachelle Raynard

Beauséjour

Liberal – Dominic LeBlanc – x

Conservative – Nathalie Vautour

NDP – Alex Gagne

Green – Josh Shaddick

People’s Party – Eddie Cornell

Libertarian – Donna Allen

Fredericton-Oromocto

Liberal – David Myles

Conservative – Brian Macdonald

NDP – Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane

Green – Pam Allen-LeBlanc

People’s Party – Heather Michaud

Future Party – Dominic Cardy

Communist – June Patterson

Centrist – Brandon Ellis

Fundy Royal

Liberal – Bill Kudla

Conservative – Rob Moore – x

NDP – Cindy Andrie

Green – Hans Johnsen

People’s Party – Alastair MacFarlane

Madawaska-Restigouche

Liberal – Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault

Conservative – Michel Morin

NDP – Daisy Petersen

Green – Ann McAllister – *

People’s Party – Nancy Mercier

Miramichi-Grand Lake

Liberal – Lisa Harris

Conservative – Mike Dawson

NDP – Josh Floyd

Green – Matthew Ian Clark

Moncton-Dieppe

Liberal – Ginette Petitpas Taylor -x

Conservative – Jocelyn Dionne

NDP – Serge Landry

Green – Marshall Dunn

People’s Party – Mark Duperron – *

Saint John-Kennebecasis

Liberal – Wayne Long – x

Conservative – Melissa Young

NDP – Armand Cormier

Green – David MacFarquhar

People’s Party – William Edgett -*

Libertarian – Austin Venedam

Saint John-St. Croix

Liberal – Karen Ludwig

Conservative – John Williamson – x

NDP – Andrew Hill

Green – Gerald Irish

People’s Party – Marc-André Michaud – *

Libertarian – Keith Tays

Tobique-Mactaquac

Liberal – Julian Moulton

Conservative – Richard Bragdon – x

NDP – Michael John Winter

Green – Liam MacDougall

People’s Party – Vern Brundle

x – Incumbent

* – Not yet confirmed by Elections Canada