Tide Turners: 3 N.B. Ridings That Could Shake Up Election Night

By The Porter O'Brien Team

With Election Day just around the corner, Canada’s political parties are scrambling to make their final pitch to voters. 

For weeks, the leaders of each major party have criss-crossed the country, speaking at rallies, shaking hands, and taking photos with supporters. They’ve made stops in New Brunswick, with Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals holding a rally in Fredericton, and with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visiting Saint John early in the campaign.

It’s been an odd campaign, with the attention of voters heavily focused on Canada’s relationship with the United States, and on affordability. Each of the parties have campaigned on promoting Canada’s strength as a country, and depicting their respective leaders as the person best positioned to deal with President Trump.

If recent opinion polls are accurate, voter support has polarized around the federal Liberal and Conservative parties, with support for the NDP, Greens, and the PPC collapsing. 

We see this trend reflected in New Brunswick, where each of the province’s 10 federal seats are projected to be won by a Conservative or a Liberal candidate. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any excitement when polls close. While some seats will vote decisively in favour of Team Red or Team Blue, a few seats are expected to be neck and neck. Here’s three seats we’re keeping an eye on:

Fredericton—Oromocto

Voters in Fredericton aren’t shy about changing their minds on who to support in federal elections, having elected Liberal, Conservative, and Green candidates all in the last 15 years.

In 2015, the riding was won by Liberal candidate Matt DeCourcey, who triumphed over his Conservative opponent the late Keith Ashfield, who served as a cabinet minister in the Harper government. DeCourcey in turn lost the seat in 2019 to Green candidate Jenica Atwin, in one of the tightest three-way races in the country. She later crossed the floor to the Liberals and held the seat in 2021, narrowly beating out the Conservative candidate.

Atwin elected not to run again in this election, so the Liberals are running popular musician David Myles as their candidate. The well-known performing artist has a higher degree of popularity than most political novices, but has had to learn on the job, having been chosen as the party’s candidate after the campaign already started.

On the other hand, Brian Macdonald, the Conservative candidate is no stranger to politics. He served as a provincial MLA under the New Brunswick PC Party for two terms from 2010 to 2018. He also ran for leadership of the provincial party back in 2016. He’s well known, well respected, and the Conservatives want this seat badly, having finished a close second in the last two campaigns. 

Adding to the mix is the candidacy of Dominic Cardy, leader of the new Canadian Future Party, a centrist group that aims to build a coalition of support from “small-c” conservatives and “small-l” liberals. Cardy is a unique case in Canadian politics, having served as both leader of the provincial NDP and as a cabinet minister under the former PC government of Blaine Higgs, before sitting as an Independent MLA. Cardy won’t win on April 28th, but he has the potential to pick up a small share of the vote. Will that share be enough to spoil the result for either Myles or Macdonald? We’ll find out soon. 

Miramichi—Grand Lake

If all politics are local, then there’s no better example than in Miramichi—Grand Lake, where two former MLAs are squaring off against each for the right to represent the riding in Ottawa. 

Running for the Liberals is Lisa Harris, a former provincial cabinet minister and MLA for Miramichi Bay-Neguac. She previously ran for the federal seat in 2021, and lost in a close race to the Conservative candidate Jake Stewart, who isn’t seeking re-election. Running for the Conservatives this time is Mike Dawson, who – like Harris – also happens to be a former MLA from Miramichi. 

Both candidates have experience in retail politics, and are well-known in the region. With the Liberals seemingly moving ahead in the polls, can Harris take the seat back? Or will Dawson be able to keep the riding Tory blue?

Saint John—St. Croix

Usually when a candidate is defeated at the polls, they move on to other endeavours and leave politics behind. That’s not the case in Saint John—St. Croix, where both the Conservative and Liberal candidates have felt the sting of defeat, only to return to the arena once more.

John Williamson, the incumbent Conservative MP was first elected in 2011, in the riding which was then known as New Brunswick Southwest. However, he was defeated in 2015 by rookie Liberal candidate Karen Ludwig, who rode a wave of enthusiasm for then-Liberal leader Justin Trudeau to victory.

Undeterred, Williamson ran again in 2019 and won the seat back from Ludwig and has remained as the MP ever since. However, in what might feel like a case of déjà vu, Ludwig is running again for the Liberals, meaning that she and Williamson will challenge each other for the third time in ten years.

A complicating factor in this race is the fact that the boundaries for the old New Brunswick Southwest riding shifted significantly following the last federal redistribution, with the western half of the City of Saint John now included in the district. That means that the new riding of Saint John—St. Croix is significantly more urban than in past races in the region. 

Right now, Williamson looks to have the advantage. But, if Ludwig and the Liberals can finish strong in the final days of the campaign, there’s potential for a surprise result.

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