This Week on the Hill | Nov. 2 to Nov. 6

Ottawa is moving fast this week. Prime Minister Mark Carney says Washington has quietly dropped several of its August red lines as trade talks inch forward, while Minister Champagne’s second budget signals a sharp pivot toward industrial buildout, trade diversification and a leaner federal public service. And with six by-elections now set for Dec. 7, the political stakes are rising, from the Liberals’ majority to Pierre Poilievre’s future as Conservative leader.

• The never-ending story of the U.S. trade deal continues. Prime Minister Mark Carney had a “good conversation” with President Donald Trump on Saturday. “Some of our red lines have clearly shifted around language, around culture, around sovereignty, our ability to have trade deals. In other words, those are now off the table,” he told reporters, suggesting U.S. officials have backed down on their August dealbreakers. Carney said “more formal negotiations” are on the way, but he doesn’t think Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc or Chief U.S. Trade Negotiator Janice Charette need to be in Washington for talks to continue.

  
  

• Thursday was Ottawa’s Super Bowl, with Minister Champagne’s second budget. It marks a sharp pivot: less reliance on operating spending and immigration-led growth, and more focus on industrial buildout, trade diversification and economic sovereignty. The numbers behind it: $152 billion in net new measures over five years, operating spending growth cut from 8.1% to 1.5%, and a 10% reduction in the federal public service. Want to know more? Read our analysis here.

  
  

• Over the weekend, the prime minister called Dec. 7 by-elections in six federal ridings: Brantford-Brant South, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton, Scarborough North and Yorkton-Melville. Will the Liberals increase their majority? Could a loss of the Conservative stronghold of Brantford-Brant South spell the end of Pierre Poilievre’s tenure as party leader? Will the Bloc Québécois lose its grip on Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot–Acton? An army of analysts in Ottawa is trying to answer these questions.