Porter O’Brien releases first public semi-annual New Brunswick poll - Liberals narrowly lead PCs among decided voters; undecided voters rise since fall 2025

FREDERICTON, NB — June 23, 2026 — For the first time, Porter O’Brien is publicly releasing results from its semi-annual public opinion poll of New Brunswick residents.

If a provincial general election were held today, the Liberals would narrowly lead among decided voters with 43% support, followed by the PCs at 39%, the Greens at 13%, and other parties at 5%.

The Liberals led narrowly in Greater Fredericton and Greater Saint John, while leading by wider margins in Greater Moncton and rural francophone New Brunswick. The PCs led by a wide margin in rural anglophone New Brunswick.

The race has tightened since Porter O’Brien’s previous poll in fall 2025. Liberal support among decided voters is down six percentage points from 49%,

PC support is down one point from 40%, and Green support is up five points from 8%. Among all survey respondents, the share of undecided voters increased seven points, rising to 21% from 14%.

In addition to vote intention, Porter O’Brien surveyed New Brunswickers on a wide range of public policy, economic, and social issues. The firm will conduct and release this research twice per year, in the spring and fall.

Organizations, researchers, and members of the public interested in purchasing questions in future research may contact Porter O’Brien at info@porterobrien.com or 506-300-0603.

Methodology

Porter O’Brien surveyed 802 New Brunswick residents aged 18 and older between May 27 and June 3, 2026.

The survey used a mixed-mode approach, including 402 respondents recruited through a blend of double opt-in representative panels and 400 respondents recruited through text-to-web/SMS sampling.

Results were weighted by age, gender, region, education, and language to reflect the New Brunswick adult population.

Vote intention results reported in this release are among decided voters and exclude respondents who were undecided, said they did not know, would not vote, or could not vote.

Because the survey was conducted online, a margin of error is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a probability-based random sample of the same size would be considered accurate to within ±3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Porter O’Brien’s previous survey was conducted between November 19 and 25, 2025, among 813 New Brunswick residents aged 18 and older.

The poll was funded by clients who asked questions on other topics included in the same survey but not being publicly released. Porter O’Brien always asks vote intention questions, and beginning with this survey is releasing those results publicly.

Porter O’Brien is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council and the American Association for Public Opinion Research. The firm has conducted polling on behalf of clients since February 2020, shortly after being founded in December 2019.

Media contact:

Jordan O’Brien. obrien@porterobrien.com, 506-300-0603

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? (all voters)

New Brunswick Liberal Party, led by Susan Holt	32%
The Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick, led by Glen Savoie	29%
The Green Party of New Brunswick, led by David Coon	10%
Some other party	4%
Undecided	21%
I would not vote	3%
I am not eligible to vote	1%

n=802, margin of error +/- 3.46 pp, 19 times out of 20

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? (decided voters)

New Brunswick Liberal Party, led by Susan Holt	43%
The Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick, led by Glen Savoie	39%
The Green Party of New Brunswick, led by David Coon	13%
Some other party	5%

n=603, margin of error +/- 3.99 pp, 19 times out of 20

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? (decided voters by region)

	Greater Fredericton	Greater Moncton	Greater Saint John	Rural Anglophone Regions	Rural Francophone Regions
New Brunswick Liberal Party, led by Susan Holt	43%	60%	47%	24%	57%
The Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick, led by Glen Savoie	40%	28%	43%	51%	24%
The Green Party of New Brunswick, led by David Coon	17%	10%	5%	16%	13%
Some other party	-	2%	5%	9%	7%
	n=99	n=121	n=78	n=168	n=97
Margin of error (19/20)	+/-9.85 pp	+/- 8.9 pp	+/- 11.09 pp	+/- 7.56 pp	+/- 9.95 pp